AfD surge and CDU collapse in German state votes
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state elections on 20 September, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) took first place with around 38% of the vote, more than doubling its 2021 share. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) crashed to 4.9%, falling below the 5% threshold and losing all seats in the state parliament for the first time since 1945. Merz called the result a “disaster” but vowed to stay on and pursue reforms. In simultaneous Berlin elections, the Left Party (Die Linke) finished first, overtaking the CDU, which dropped to second. The AfD also gained ground there. SPD is positioned to lead a left-leaning coalition in the northeast state, keeping the AfD out of power via the established “firewall.”
This follows the AfD’s strong showing in Saxony-Anhalt earlier in September, where it nearly secured a majority. Merz, who won the 2025 federal election promising to reverse AfD gains, has seen his approval ratings collapse; he became one of the most unpopular postwar chancellors within months. Critics highlight flip-flops on debt rules, nuclear power, migration enforcement, and coalition choices with the SPD. Non-voters and former CDU supporters shifted heavily to AfD. Mainstream parties continue to exclude AfD from coalitions while some figures float bans.
Key tensions centre on whether the firewall remains sustainable as AfD consolidates as the main opposition force in the east, and whether Merz’s leadership or a mid-term CDU change can reverse the trend without policy shifts. Polarisation is rising on both flanks, with the Left also advancing in urban areas. Open questions include the durability of grand-coalition style governance and the long-term viability of excluding a party that now regularly tops eastern polls.
Sources: Spiked, UnHerd, Politico Europe.
Russia’s hybrid campaign to fracture Nato
UnHerd analysis published 22 September outlines a scenario of gradual Russian escalation designed to erode Nato cohesion rather than trigger immediate full-scale war. Recent grey-zone actions include drone incursions, a missile incident in Poland, attempted infrastructure sabotage, and intelligence warnings from Polish, Lithuanian and French leaders of planned “accidental” strikes on pro-Ukraine Nato members. CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s recent Moscow visit reportedly included warnings against attacking the alliance. The piece argues Putin’s aim is control through discord: normalising low-level attacks on border infrastructure, energy assets and logistics hubs supporting Ukraine, forcing Nato into binary choices where most members prefer insecure peace over Article 5 activation.
Background includes months of hybrid pressure and Russian framing of Nato as a direct party to the Ukraine conflict. Scenario steps progress from border-crossing strikes and drone hits on pipelines or airports, to shooting down projectiles, then a claimed retaliatory strike on a Nato asset, testing willingness to fight without clear US commitment under Trump. European responses risk remaining limited to proxy support for Ukraine while publics grow inured to incidents.
Tensions lie in Nato’s defensive framework lacking intermediate options, differing threat perceptions between eastern and western members, and potential US reluctance amid other priorities. Contradictions include tough rhetoric versus limited past responses (e.g., to prior drone strikes). Open questions concern whether gradualism succeeds in creating a de facto “coalition of the willing” rather than unified defence, and how far hybrid actions can go before thresholds are crossed.
Sources: UnHerd.