Analysis: Finance & Crypto — 10 November 2026
Fed Governor Waller backs December 25bp hike as Bitcoin trades near $74,000
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would still support a 0.25 percentage-point rate increase at the Dec. 9 FOMC meeting even if Tuesday’s CPI print is cooler than expected. Bitcoin traded near $74,080, down about 1.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4% ahead of the U.S. open. CME FedWatch odds of a 25-basis-point December hike jumped from 76.3% to 96.3% after the speech. Economists expect October headline CPI of 0.3% month-on-month and core of 0.2%, versus 0.6% and 0.3% in September.
Waller, speaking at the Bank of England Watchers Conference in London, called September PCE “bad” with “no silver lining,” citing a 0.5% monthly rise and 3.7% year-on-year. He said PCE is the measure targeted by the FOMC and that a substantially hotter CPI could justify “more robust action.” The BLS will publish only month-on-month figures because the 2025 government shutdown left no October 2025 prices for annual comparisons. Fuel costs had driven September’s spike; the subsequent oil collapse is the main reason markets expect a slower October print.
The tension is that a softer CPI may not change the December path if hawks treat energy relief as transitory. Bitcoin options skew favored puts, with the $74,000 strike expiring Nov. 13 among the most traded contracts. Analysts at BRN argued that without positive ETF flows and a dovish Fed, the path of least resistance remains lower. The open question is whether a 0.3% print can cap hike odds, or whether Waller’s pre-commitment has already priced the data.
Sources: Cointelegraph, CoinDesk.
Brent crude falls below $90 as Trump signals no new Iran strikes
Brent crude dropped below $90 a barrel for the first time since August, trading near $89.70 in early European hours, while WTI fell below $85. President Donald Trump said a new bombing campaign against Iran “doesn’t seem to be a very necessary thing at this point” and claimed “momentum toward the end of this conflict.” Last week Brent fell about 17%, its largest weekly drop since the 2020 Covid crash, and is down roughly 25% from a late-October peak above $117.
The sell-off followed Qatar-mediated talks and an Al Arabiya report that Washington would allow 3.67% uranium enrichment inside Iran, with Tehran said to agree and IAEA inspector talks under discussion. Crude flows through Hormuz have almost returned to pre-war levels, according to Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen, though LNG and refined products, especially diesel, remain constrained. Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure continued, including a limited fire on the East-West pipeline.
Markets are treating diplomatic headlines as the dominant price driver even as military activity has not stopped. Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s Vivek Dhar said a deal lifting the Hormuz blockade could send Brent toward $70–$85. UBS has argued that a large inventory draw from the conflict still sets a floor. Whether the war-risk premium is fully gone, or merely paused, depends on whether a written agreement appears.
Sources: OilPrice.com, ZeroHedge.
Spot bitcoin ETFs lose $201 million as IBIT records seventh straight outflow day
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs lost $201 million on Monday, led by $213.2 million of redemptions from BlackRock’s IBIT, which has now posted seven consecutive sessions of outflows, according to Farside Investors. Bitcoin slipped toward $74,200 even as U.S. stocks rebounded, with the S&P 500 posting its best day since April 8 and the Nasdaq Composite rising 2.7%. Ether fell about 1.4% to around $2,100 after spot ether ETFs lost $184.6 million.
The divergence followed last week’s AI-led equity rout and more than $1 billion of crypto liquidations over the prior 24 hours, which then cooled to about $184 million. Strategy disclosed a purchase of 1,036 bitcoin for $81.9 million at an average of $79,012, lifting holdings to 850,364 BTC at a $75,456 average cost, leaving the stack slightly underwater at spot prices near $74,000–$75,000. Put-heavy options positioning around $74,000 showed traders hedging a CPI miss or a hawkish Fed.
Institutional spot demand is not confirming the equity bounce. If ETF flows stay negative, a cooler CPI may produce only a brief squeeze rather than a durable bid. The test is whether IBIT’s outflow streak breaks after the inflation print, or whether bitcoin continues to trade as a high-beta residual of Fed liquidity rather than a catch-up trade.
Sources: CoinDesk, Bitcoin Magazine.