Reform UK’s Poll Setback and Populist Resilience A YouGov MRP mega-poll released around 25 September projected Reform UK winning just 123 seats in a hypothetical UK election, down sharply from 311 a year earlier and placing it third behind Labour (241) and the Conservatives (130). A separate More in Common poll also showed Reform in … Read more
Middle East Escalation Drives Oil Spike Houthi forces launched missile and drone strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Yanbu, plus other targets, on September 24. Saudi-led forces intercepted some missiles. Brent crude rose about 3.4% to $106.60 and WTI 2.7% to $94.61, with intraday gains near 5%, before partial retreats on Hormuz reopening … Read more
Burnham’s Information Defence Centre UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced at the UN General Assembly the creation of a National Centre for Information Defence (NCID). It is tasked with detecting, attributing and disrupting “hostile state information attacks,” particularly from Russia, including bots, forged media, deepfakes and narratives of national decline. Burnham framed it as a … Read more
Trump Threatens Iran Annihilation at UN as War Drags On U.S. President Donald Trump told the UN General Assembly he faces a choice between a deal allowing Iran to rebuild or quickly annihilating the Islamic Republic if diplomacy fails. The nearly seven-month war, which began with larger-scale U.S. action after earlier Israeli-linked strikes, has seen … Read more
Merz’s CDU Collapse in Eastern Germany German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) suffered a historic defeat in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state elections, securing just 4.9% of the vote and falling below the 5% threshold for any seats—the first such postwar result. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) took first place with 38%. In simultaneous Berlin … Read more
Middle East Conflict Reignites Oil Market Stress Saudi Arabia has delayed or canceled multiple crude shipments to European refiners after a drone attack damaged its East-West pipeline, with full restoration potentially taking weeks. Combined with Houthi control of key Red Sea positions near Bab al-Mandeb and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, this has … Read more
Merz’s CDU collapses as AfD surges in German state votes In state elections on 20 September, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with 38.2% of the vote, more than doubling its 2021 share, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) scored 4.9% and fell below the 5% threshold for the first time … Read more
Middle East oil shocks deepen amid Iran war Saudi Arabia has delayed or canceled multiple crude shipments to Europe after an attack damaged its East-West pipeline, with full restoration possibly taking weeks. Houthis have seized positions near the Bab al-Mandeb, adding pressure on Red Sea shipping, while partial Hormuz flows remain fragile. Brent crude has … Read more
AfD surge and CDU collapse in German state votes In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state elections on 20 September, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) took first place with around 38% of the vote, more than doubling its 2021 share. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) crashed to 4.9%, falling below the 5% threshold and losing all … Read more
AfD breakthrough shatters Merz’s authority Two German state elections on 20 September delivered a severe blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his CDU. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania the AfD became the largest party with roughly 38%, more than doubling its previous share, while the CDU collapsed below 5% and exited the state parliament for the first … Read more