Reform UK’s Poll Setback and Populist Resilience
A YouGov MRP mega-poll released around 25 September projected Reform UK winning just 123 seats in a hypothetical UK election, down sharply from 311 a year earlier and placing it third behind Labour (241) and the Conservatives (130). A separate More in Common poll also showed Reform in third. This lands during Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s early honeymoon period ahead of the 28 October Halloween Budget. On the same day, a record 781 illegal crossings were recorded for 2026. Reform retains £72 million in funding.
Background: Reform surged after the 2025 election cycle on migration, net-zero costs and institutional distrust, peaking near 30% support. It has since lost ground to Labour, Conservatives and Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain (polling 3-7%). YouGov notes over a third of seats are decided by five points or less, including two-thirds of Reform’s projected wins. Farage remains the most unpopular major leader, encouraging tactical anti-Reform voting. UnHerd compares the trajectory to the AfD’s post-pandemic dip and recovery in Germany, and to National Rally setbacks in France before Marine Le Pen’s strengthened position.
Key tensions centre on strategy. A pact with Restore Britain could consolidate the populist right in tight seats. Alternatively, Reform could broaden appeal by dialling down figures like Zia Yusuf, emphasising conservation, affordable housing for younger voters or AI concerns. Core issues of high illegal arrivals and fiscal pressures persist. Open questions include whether the Burnham bounce survives the Budget, if funding enables a decisive reset, and whether UK populism follows the AfD pattern of temporary reverse followed by stronger gains amid mainstream failures. Complacency by Labour and Conservatives risks underestimating this.
Sources: UnHerd.
Bond Yields Pressure European Markets Amid Fragile Relief
On 25 September, European equities opened higher in a relief bounce after Thursday’s sell-off: Eurostoxx +0.8%, DAX +0.6%, CAC 40 +0.5%, FTSE 100 +0.5%, IBEX +0.8%, FTSE MIB +1.0%. WTI crude fell 2.4% to $92.36 (earlier ~1.3% to $93.55) on reports of a possible phased US-Iran deal that could ease Strait of Hormuz restrictions. US 10-year Treasury yields hovered near 5.17% after touching 5.22% (highest since 2007); 30-year yields hit 5.50% (highest since 2004). Gold rose 0.6% to $4,305; S&P futures were modestly positive. German consumer climate darkened on higher energy costs. Yen strengthened as USD/JPY dropped below 158 on Japanese official comments and Trump remarks on yen weakness.
Background: Persistent high yields reflect sticky inflation, strong US data and supply shocks, complicating central bank paths. European indices had closed lower earlier in the week under the same pressure. Oil’s risk premium remains elevated despite thin Hormuz traffic and diplomacy hopes. China’s industrial competition continues to squeeze German manufacturers, per ECB commentary. Month-end FX flows pointed to yen/pound selling and euro buying.
Tensions lie in the fragile risk mood: lower oil eases immediate inflation fears and supports equities short-term, yet elevated bond yields threaten valuations and growth, especially in debt-sensitive Europe. A renewed push above 5.22% on the 10-year would test equity resilience. Open questions include whether US-Iran progress sustains oil declines, if yields stabilise or climb toward 6%, how the ECB and peers respond amid German weakness, and whether European stocks can decouple from US Treasury dynamics. Sentiment remains cautious heading into the weekend.
Sources: InvestingLive.