Analysis: Global — 27 October 2026
Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials meet Iran in Tehran as US-Israel war stalls
On 26 October, Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir, Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin met Iranian leaders in Tehran. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei hosted the session; Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi attended and the visitors saw President Masoud Pezeshkian. Iranian accounts said the agenda covered regional security, the fallout of US-Israeli military action, and Palestine. Major Western outlets either omitted the meeting or placed it at the bottom of their homepages.
The US-Israel war with Iran began on 28 February 2026. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have been building a Mecca mutual-defense arrangement while Riyadh’s war with Yemen’s Ansar Allah has gone badly. Kinetic fighting is currently low as Israel holds elections and US midterms approach on 3 November. Fox and AP-NORC polls put the Iran war among voters’ top concerns, ahead of immigration and crime; six in ten Fox respondents oppose US military action against Iran.
Fact: Rezaei said the three visitors argued that regional problems should be solved by the four countries working together, and Iranian officials described the format as potentially recurring. Analysis: the Saudi riyal and UAE dirham remain dollar-pegged, so a clean break from Washington is constrained; Iran also treats Pakistan as a US message-carrier. The talks may still give President Trump a pretext to delay a promised large strike rather than produce a settlement.
Sources: Naked Capitalism; Responsible Statecraft; PressTV via Naked Capitalism.
Lula wins Brazil runoff over Trump-backed Flávio Bolsonaro
Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Sunday’s runoff with 64.3 million votes (51.8 percent) against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 59.8 million (48.2 percent), a gap of more than 4.4 million. Bolsonaro had led the first round 47.03 to 45.16 percent; no first-round winner had previously lost a Brazilian presidential runoff. Turnout rose to 80.8 percent. After Trump signaled he would not intervene, Bolsonaro effectively conceded; Brazilian authorities ordered him to surrender his passport, and he later crossed into Argentina on a national ID.
Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu and Argentina’s Javier Milei had backed Bolsonaro. Naked Capitalism reports Meta restricted Lula content on Facebook and Instagram while boosting Bolsonaro material; Brazil’s O Globo backed Bolsonaro after Lula banned online gambling. Lula’s campaign used a WhatsApp channel, “Lula’s Army,” that grew from 50,000 to 10 million followers in three weeks and gained about 10 million extra votes between rounds. A debate jab at Lula’s missing finger, lost in an industrial accident at 17, backfired.
Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy. Analysis: a Bolsonaro win was treated as the missing piece of a US-Israel regional alignment; Lula’s victory is the first major setback to that project, not a clean legislative mandate. Right-wing and centrist blocs can still command the lower house. ARK bought Brazilian names on the selloff.
Sources: Naked Capitalism; BigGo Finance.
Record tanker rates cut U.S. crude shipments to Asia by half
Shipping crude from the US Gulf Coast to Asia cost about $60 million per VLCC this week and peaked near $80 million earlier in October—about ten times the pre-war average. Asian refiners’ orders for US crude for November delivery have fallen about 50 percent from September, to roughly 25 million barrels. If that pace holds, November US volumes to Asia would be the lowest in seven years.
The Iran war has tied up tankers in inefficient Hormuz and Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers; the Oman shuttle fleet is about 80 VLCCs with round voyages of about 23 days versus 9–10 days in normal conditions. Valero said Gulf Coast-to-Asia freight now averages $30–35 a barrel against about $5 in 2025. Dated Brent’s premium to Brent hit a record near $20; Norway’s Johan Sverdrup reached about $24 over Brent.
US and West African grades have been forced into steep discounts to offset the haul. The WTI Midland-East Houston premium collapsed to about $0.25 from more than $3 in early September. Analysis: a shipping shortage is now layered on the oil shock; yards are not delivering enough new crude tankers in 2027 to reverse the squeeze quickly.
Sources: Naked Capitalism; OilPrice via Naked Capitalism.