Analysis: Finance & Crypto — 26 October 2026
Bitcoin holds near $80,000 as traders de-risk ahead of Fed meeting
Bitcoin dipped to about $79,300 in the Asian morning on 26 October, then steadied near $80,400, little changed since midnight UTC. Ether slipped 0.2 percent; most major tokens were mixed after an earlier session in which bitcoin fell nearly 2 percent to about $79,800. Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $138 million of outflows on Friday, taking a two-day exit to $772 million, according to Farside Investors. CME FedWatch priced a 90 percent chance of no rate change on Wednesday and about an 80 percent chance of another increase in December.
The Federal Reserve raised rates in September. Hot September CPI, driven in large part by a 9.1 percent jump in gasoline, had earlier lifted hike odds. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs lost more than $635 million on Thursday after an oil spike, reversing earlier-week inflows. Arthur Hayes said his Maelstrom fund sold its entire directional book, including 6,400 ether, citing macro and geopolitical risk. Options still priced puts richer than calls, though one-month bitcoin skew eased to about 12.5 percent from 14.5 percent.
The open question is whether Wednesday’s statement, not the likely hold, resets December odds. Analysis: bitcoin is trading as a high-beta liquidity asset, not a hedge, while oil remains high enough to keep a December hike in play. A reclaim of $82,500 is the level cited for restoring buyer confidence; the ETF cohort’s cost basis near $81,500 is nearby support. If the chair leans hawkish, that band can fail without a separate crypto-specific shock.
Sources: CoinDesk, Farside Investors, CME FedWatch.
Oil dips but stays above $100 as Hormuz tanker attacks hit a monthly record
Crude opened the week lower. West Texas Intermediate traded near $101 a barrel, down about 2 percent, and Brent slipped toward $110 after last week’s move above $116. U.S. equity futures rose about 0.4 percent as the oil pullback lifted cyclicals. President Donald Trump said it was “getting to be decision time” on a deal with Tehran or resumed strikes, while adding there would be no strike that day.
UK Maritime Trade Operations and IMO data show at least 28 vessels attacked in the Strait of Hormuz this month, including 11 damaged supertankers; the true total is likely higher. Weekend Houthi strikes again hit Saudi oil facilities and an airport. Kpler has Hormuz flows averaging 11.7 million barrels a day in October, up from 9.8 million in September but still below the 14.5 million pre-war average. Ship-to-ship workarounds have kept freight at extreme levels even when headline barrels recover.
The contradiction is volume versus delivered cost. Physical barrels have softened as some Gulf outflows rebounded, while futures stay elevated on attack risk and thin inventories. Qatari mediators were in Tehran; Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials were due to meet Iranian counterparts on Monday. Analysis: a modest diplomatic headline can knock several dollars off the complex, but the freight and war-risk premium does not clear until tanker hits stop. That keeps energy in the inflation impulse the Fed must address this week.
Sources: OilPrice.com, ZeroHedge/Newsquawk, Kpler via Reuters.
Moody’s holds France at Aa3 as Fed, ECB and BoJ meetings stack up
Moody’s kept France at Aa3 with a negative outlook, one notch above S&P and Fitch, assuming a deficit-cutting budget is eventually adopted. The CAC 40 rose 0.9 percent. The 10-year OAT-Bund spread narrowed by almost 8 basis points to about 158 basis points after a recent peak near 176. S&P’s next review is 27 November. The ECB decides Thursday; the Bank of Japan is widely expected to hold on Friday.
U.S. data on Monday were light (Dallas Fed manufacturing, Chicago Fed activity), so the dollar and Treasuries traded on oil and the Wednesday FOMC. Ten-year yields had already retraced more than 30 basis points from recent highs after a 17-basis-point drop last Thursday, the largest since March 2023, taking the 10-year back below 5 percent. Dutch TTF gas, by contrast, pushed toward €100 per MWh, limiting how far European bonds could rally.
The tension is a hold that is not a pivot. Markets treat this week’s Fed as a pause after the September hike, while still pricing a December increase if oil and core inflation do not cool. France avoided an immediate downgrade, but the negative outlook and a still-wide OAT spread show fiscal risk was postponed, not closed. Analysis: risk assets are being granted a window by cheaper crude and a likely Fed hold; that window shrinks if the statement keeps December live or if Hormuz headlines reverse the oil dip.
Sources: ZeroHedge/Newsquawk, CoinDesk.