Analysis: Global — 24 October 2026
Iran braces for US-Israeli strikes as Brent nears $117
Iranian officials told Fars News they believe a joint U.S.-Israeli attack is imminent and have ordered activation of the decentralized “Mosaic Defense” doctrine, dispersing command across 31 provincial units. The Financial Times reported that Benjamin Netanyahu instructed the Israeli military to plan a multi-day bombing campaign for the weekend of October 10 against electricity plants, nuclear sites and regime targets; the raid did not proceed after President Donald Trump opposed restarting large-scale fighting before the November 3 U.S. midterms. Netanyahu has since said he ordered the IDF, Mossad and other agencies to prepare for the overthrow of Iran’s leadership. Brent crude rose toward $117 a barrel, WTI moved back above $100, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much as 800 points on Friday as investors priced a return to wartime oil levels.
The war opened with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February. The Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20 percent of seaborne oil, was effectively shut in early March; a ceasefire was announced on April 8, but tanker traffic never fully recovered. A June memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran has not been implemented. Iran’s IRGC Navy said seven vessels were hit in the strait, Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia intensified, and the United States ordered most embassy staff out of the kingdom. Physical “dated Brent” has lagged futures, which function partly as a wager on whether fighting resumes after the midterms.
The open question is timing, not intent. Trump has signaled a short post-election campaign; Netanyahu, facing his own vote on October 27, is pressing for earlier action. Iran has restated a seven-point proposal and warned that U.S. political and economic assets, including in partner countries, could be targeted. Analysis: a three-day U.S. strike would strain depleted precision munitions and risk drawing Iranian attacks on Israeli dual-use sites and remaining U.S. bases, while a prolonged Hormuz disruption would keep energy inflation in the Fed’s path.
Sources: Naked Capitalism; BigGo Finance; Responsible Statecraft.
Israel votes October 27 with both blocs hardline on Gaza and Iran
Israelis vote on October 27 in a contest that pits Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud and religious-right allies against a fragmented opposition led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and the Bennett-Lapid Be-Yahad list. Final polls put Netanyahu’s camp near 50 Knesset seats and Eisenkot’s camp at 52–56, both short of the 61 needed to govern. Arab parties are projected at 14–16 seats; Eisenkot’s bloc has said it will not sit with them, so coalition arithmetic may rest on outside support or a deadlock.
Likud is running on wartime performance. Ultra-Orthodox partners seek to keep yeshiva funding and draft exemptions; Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich want more West Bank settlement, Jewish settlement in Gaza, and tighter control of Palestinian territory. Eisenkot campaigns on judicial independence and reversing a post-election change in how judges are appointed. All leading Jewish lists insist Hamas must be disarmed before any Gaza reconstruction or withdrawal; Netanyahu frames the fall of Iran’s government as a strategic goal and says Israel must be able to act without U.S. approval.
The U.S.-brokered Gaza framework remains stalled. Eisenkot promises to end Hamas rule within 18 months, by Trump’s plan or by force, and wants a joint U.S. inspection regime on Iran’s nuclear program. Analysis: a change of prime minister would alter judicial and Haredi policy more than the wars. Gallup found nearly two-thirds of Israelis oppose a two-state solution, so whoever forms a government is likely to keep military pressure on Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.
Sources: Responsible Statecraft.
NATO pressure on Kaliningrad meets Russian nuclear warning
Responsible Statecraft argues that NATO’s post-1989 expansion around the Russian Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad has created a flashpoint comparable to Cold War West Berlin. Kaliningrad hosts the Baltic Fleet and medium-range nuclear missiles and is now land-locked behind Poland and Lithuania, with the Baltic Sea largely a NATO lake. President Vladimir Putin has said Russia would use nuclear weapons if necessary to break a blockade; NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has said he does not take the threat seriously.
Lithuania in June 2022 tried to bar sanctioned goods in transit to the exclave until the EU exempted rail traffic. Sweden in June 2025 announced checks on Russia’s “shadow fleet” in its economic zone, covering much of the central Baltic, then quietly stepped back after Moscow threatened military protection of tankers. Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski said last month that NATO should exercise so aggressively near Kaliningrad that Putin would have to pull forces from Ukraine, noting few Russian troops remain in the exclave after deployments to the Ukraine front.
Russia’s 11th Army Corps in Kaliningrad is far smaller than Poland’s army of about 100,000 plus reserves. Analysis: if a land-and-sea blockade were imposed, Moscow’s conventional options would be limited, which is why Russian officials describe an immediate nuclear ultimatum as the only way to hold the territory. The contradiction is that some Polish officials warn of a Russian “test” of NATO while others describe Russia as too weak in the Baltic to resist pressure.
Sources: Responsible Statecraft.