US CPI Slows, Rate-Hike Odds Fall
July US CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, matching expectations and easing from June’s 3.5%. Core CPI increased 0.2% MoM, with the annual rate slowing to 2.5%, its lowest since February. Energy prices fell 1.5% MoM, driving much of the moderation, while SuperCore (core services ex-shelter) dropped to 2.78% YoY, the slowest since September 2021. Shelter rose a modest 0.1% MoM.
This print follows a period of sticky services inflation and recent labor market softness. Markets had positioned for an uneventful reading after prior volatility in jobs data. Energy deflation from earlier oil price declines provided the main downside surprise relative to sticky components like medical care and airfares.
Key tensions center on whether the slowdown proves durable. Recent oil rebounds near $90 risk reversing energy’s contribution in August data. Rate-hike odds for September tumbled post-print, yet term premiums and policy uncertainty remain elevated amid mixed growth signals. Bitcoin held near $64,000 with limited immediate reaction as volatility stayed suppressed.
Sources: ZeroHedge, CoinDesk.
IEA Flags Deep Oil Deficit Amid Hormuz Standoff
The IEA cut its 2026 global oil supply forecast sharply, projecting a 4.3 million bpd decline this year and a 1.8 million bpd deficit in the current quarter—the deepest since Q4 2021. Brent crude traded near $89–90 as Strait of Hormuz traffic hit weekly lows and Iran rejected US pressure while demanding conditions for reopening. Middle East flows remain well below pre-conflict levels.
The revision stems from prolonged Hormuz disruptions, US restrictions on Iranian exports, Bab el-Mandeb attacks, reduced Kazakh volumes, and Russian refining hits from Ukrainian drones. Inventories have drawn heavily since the conflict began. High prices are already destroying demand, with the IEA now seeing a 1.6 million bpd consumption drop this year.
Uncertainties include the durability of any de-escalation and conflicting US claims of normalized flows versus tanker data showing severe constraints. Supply could swing to surplus in 2027 only if hostilities ease. Elevated oil prices feed back into inflation risks just as CPI moderated, complicating the macro path for risk assets including crypto.
Sources: OilPrice.com, ZeroHedge.
Bitcoin Steady Near $64k as Macro and Exploits Weigh
Bitcoin traded little changed around $63,900–$64,300 ahead of and after the CPI release, with total crypto market cap near $2.2 trillion. Fear & Greed remained subdued. Public miners added roughly $1.78 billion in selling pressure, while a Harmony exploit minted tokens equal to about a quarter of supply, crashing ONE by up to 40%. Fidelity filed to add staking and quarterly payouts to its ether ETF.
BTC has been range-bound for weeks with crushed implied volatility as ETF flows offset some supply. Derivatives show mixed positioning, with some bearish taker shifts and options interest at $70k calls alongside strangles. Altcoins saw selective strength in DOGE and BNB earlier but broader weakness.
Tensions involve whether cooler inflation can spark a breakout or if oil-driven inflation risks and miner selling keep prices capped. Low open interest in majors signals sidelined capital awaiting clearer catalysts beyond the CPI binary.
Sources: CoinDesk, CoinTelegraph, Bitcoin Magazine.