Analysis: Europe — 05 November 2026
Democrats take US Congress as Vance blames Iran war for Republican rout
Democrats won both chambers of the US Congress in the 3 November midterms, a result locked in overnight into 4 November. The Associated Press called the Senate on election night and the House the next morning. Democrats were on track for at least 224 House seats. They flipped Senate seats in Texas, South Carolina, Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and North Carolina, including the first Democratic Senate win in Texas since 1988. Vice President JD Vance wrote that “the reason we lost is the war.” President Donald Trump told the Wall Street Journal that high fuel costs were the biggest factor and that Iran was “a piece of it.” An NBC exit poll found 62 per cent of voters thought Washington had made the wrong decision in starting the war; 87 per cent were concerned about petrol and diesel; Trump’s approval among voters stood at 38 per cent.
The United States and Israel began striking Iran on 28 February. The conflict has lasted more than eight months. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has lifted fuel costs in Europe as well as America. In European trading on 4 November, gold rose 3 per cent to about $4,046, EUR/USD climbed 0.6 per cent to 1.1260, and WTI crude fell 1.4 per cent to $94.65 as equities rebounded. Eurozone preliminary inflation for October printed at 4.0 per cent, the first such reading since September 2023, with energy inflation at 20.8 per cent year on year. Core inflation held at 2.5 per cent; services rose to 3.3 per cent.
Trump still has two years in office and the veto. Markets are pricing a weaker dollar and a possible diplomatic turn, but also the risk that a president blocked at home concentrates on foreign policy. The same mix of energy prices, inflation and incumbency fatigue is already the backdrop to European politics.
Sources: Brussels Signal, InvestingLive, UnHerd, Tichys Einblick, Hungarian Conservative.
Tusk government prepares laws after takeover of Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal
On 4 November, Jan Grabiec, head of Donald Tusk’s chancellery, said the government was preparing a list of laws that had not been considered by Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal for almost 11 years, to be sent to the court after the government’s takeover of the institution. The previous day, eight judges elected in the current Sejm term met at the Tribunal. Anna Korwin-Piotrowska, who last week entered the building from the Prime Minister’s Chancellery and declared herself the presiding judge in place of Bogdan Święczkowski, cut the quorum from ten to eight. The assembly adopted a budget and drew lots for disciplinary proceedings against Święczkowski and deputy Bartłomiej Sochański. Riot police have been stationed at the Tribunal since late October.
Tusk proposed a private meeting with President Karol Nawrocki “in the coming days” to reduce tensions, citing security threats from the east. Nawrocki told the National Security Council that Tusk was responsible for “all illegal activities” at the Tribunal: “This is not only a crime against the Constitution; it is a mistake.” A United Surveys/IBRiS poll for Wirtualna Polska found 38.6 per cent of Poles backed neither side, against 28.7 per cent for Nawrocki and 26.6 per cent for Tusk’s government; rejection was highest among younger voters.
The facts describe two competing claims to constitutional authority. The open questions are whether Nawrocki will recognise rulings from the reduced-quorum bench, which statutes Warsaw will now send, and whether a quiet meeting alters a takeover already completed with police present.
Sources: Remix News, Hungarian Conservative.