Analysis: Europe — 13 October 2026
France’s public debt hits 119% of GDP as default talk enters the presidential race
Wolfgang Münchau wrote in UnHerd that France may at some point stop servicing its debts. Public debt is €3.6 trillion, or 119% of GDP. On 12 October, EUR/USD traded to a 2026 low near 1.1155 as French–German 10-year spreads sat at levels last seen in the eurozone debt crisis. Paris has proposed a 2027 budget targeting a deficit of 5.0% of GDP, down from 5.4%. Eurozone finance ministers and the ECB have urged a credible plan; the draft still faces parliament.
France has not elected a majority for fiscal consolidation. Polls put Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon as the most likely second-round pair next April. Mélenchon favours cancelling French debt held by the ECB through a “perpetual zero-coupon” device: keep the money, pay neither principal nor interest. Le Pen does not call for default, but last week outlined a two-thirds cut in French contributions to the EU budget. Last week about 250,000 students protested overcrowded schools, some 500 schools closed, and police arrested almost 7,000 people.
Fact: France is too large to fail quietly and too large for a conventional rescue. Analysis: Münchau’s four exits—default, austerity, asset sales, or ECB purchases—are all politically constrained except some mix of the first and last. ECB buying would compress yields without shrinking the debt stock and could invite parallel demands from Italy and others. Unlike 2012, inflation leaves less room to monetise. Markets are pricing sovereign risk, not stronger growth: wider spreads have been euro-negative. Open questions are whether any centrist still reaches the runoff, and whether a winner would impose losses on bondholders or on pensioners, students and farmers.
Sources: UnHerd; InvestingLive.
Andy Burnham claims Russia interfered in the 2016 Brexit vote without producing evidence
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham told Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart on The Rest Is Politics that he had “clear” evidence Russia interfered in the 2016 referendum, implying Moscow tilted the result toward Leave, while offering no details. The remark followed his conference speech opening the door to rejoining the EU and floating a manifesto referendum. Foreign Office minister Stephen Doughty said Russia had attempted interference but “haven’t succeeded.” Pro-EU groups treated Burnham’s words as confirmation.
Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee 2020 Russia report reached no finding of referendum interference. After examining more than 300,000 documents, the information commissioner found no additional evidence of Russian involvement via Cambridge Analytica. The Oxford Internet Institute found little evidence of social-media sway; RT spent £767 on Twitter ads. Facebook reported IRA-linked ads of 97 cents and about 200 UK impressions. Thomas Fazi in UnHerd places the claim in a European pattern: “Russian disinformation” has been used to justify the Digital Services Act, the European Democracy Shield, and Romania’s December 2024 annulment of a presidential first round won by Călin Georgescu, without proof that TikTok activity was Russian-funded.
Burnham’s wording implied a swung vote; his minister did not. Analysis: Fazi argues the claim serves rejoin politics and recasts 17.4 million Leave voters as dupes after inquiries found next to nothing. Contrast: Politico Europe reports EU leaders preparing tougher Russia sanctions this week as Donald Trump eases diesel restrictions—the same organising threat, used for different ends. Open questions are whether any new intelligence exists after a decade of inquiries, and whether the same script will be run before French and German contests.
Sources: UnHerd; Politico Europe (contrast).