US Yields Hit 24-Year Highs as Soft PCE Fails to Ease Bond Pressure
US Treasury yields closed the third quarter at multi-decade highs, with the 10-year and longer maturities leading a bear-steepening move even after August PCE data came in softer than expected. Core PCE rose 3.0% year-over-year versus a 3.3% forecast, while headline PCE was 3.4%; final Q2 GDP was revised higher to 2.2% and ADP private payrolls beat at 90k. Stocks finished mixed, with the Nasdaq outperforming on tech strength while the Dow lagged and equal-weight indices declined.
Background includes persistent inflation concerns, elevated oil prices earlier in the period, weak recent Treasury auctions with sliding foreign demand, and ongoing fiscal pressures. Money markets cut October Fed hike odds to around 40% after the data and prior dovish comments from Fed officials, down from near 70%. Attention has also turned to Japan as a potential source of relentless Treasury selling amid carry-trade unwinds.
Key tensions center on the disconnect between bonds screaming stress—MOVE volatility elevated—and equities largely shrugging it off, supported by AI-related demand and narrow leadership. Uncertainties remain around BEA methodology changes that clouded the PCE softness, Friday’s official jobs report, and whether higher yields will eventually force broader risk-asset repricing.
Sources: ZeroHedge, Newsquawk.
Bitcoin ETFs Extend $3.1B Nine-Day Inflow Streak as Price Consolidates
US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted another $66 million, extending their net inflow streak to nine sessions and lifting the total to roughly $3.1 billion, with year-to-date flows turning positive near $1 billion. Bitcoin traded around $83,500–$85,000, spiking briefly above $85,600 on the soft PCE print before fading as yields rose; it ended near $83,500–$83,800. Ether ETFs reversed after seven days of inflows with about $3 million in outflows.
Background features strong September institutional demand that reversed earlier 2026 outflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT often leading. Crypto Fear & Greed slipped slightly to 71 (still “Greed”). Long-term holder supply dynamics have capped sustained moves above $85,000 recently.
Tensions include Bitcoin’s relative resilience to surging yields and oil volatility versus traditional risk assets, yet energy-price risks and higher rates continue to cap non-yielding assets. Uncertainties involve whether the inflow streak signals durable institutional demand or temporary positioning, and how Q4 macro events plus potential Hormuz developments will test momentum after a strong quarterly performance.
Sources: CoinTelegraph, CoinDesk, Bitcoin Magazine.
Brent Falls as Persian Gulf Oil Flows Rebound Toward Pre-War Levels
Brent crude tumbled toward $96–$97 (from over $103) and WTI toward the high $80s–low $90s after reports from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Kpler indicated Persian Gulf/Hormuz oil exports had recovered to 80–98% of pre-war levels, with Goldman citing 23.3 million bpd matching 2025 averages and higher Saudi shipments. Prices later showed partial recovery amid residual risks.
Background involves months of US-Iran conflict disruptions, ship-to-ship transfers, alternative routes, and Saudi adjustments. Russia extended its diesel export ban through October 31, while OPEC+ was expected to hold quotas steady. Separate reports noted tanker incidents that had limited price impact.
Key tensions pit improving physical flows against ongoing geopolitical fragility, including reported attacks, failed ceasefire talks, and Iranian readiness measures. Uncertainties surround the durability of the rebound, winter energy demand in Europe, potential US diesel export restrictions, and whether renewed combat could reverse the supply recovery.
Sources: OilPrice.com, ZeroHedge.