AfD Landslide Shatters German Firewall
In Saxony-Anhalt’s state election on 6 September, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured 43.8% of the vote and 39 of 83 seats, more than doubling its 2021 result and falling just three seats short of an absolute majority. Turnout hit a post-reunification high of nearly 78%. The CDU collapsed to 17.2%, the SPD to around 9%, with Greens, Die Linke and BSW also entering parliament. AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund declared a “mandate to govern” and a message to Berlin; national co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla hailed history. Chancellor Friedrich Merz called it the CDU’s worst defeat in decades and pledged greater empathy, while ruling out any cooperation under the Brandmauer firewall.
Background: Successive governments since 2015 failed to control migration peaks, including 2022’s high net inflows, amid rising crime and attacks such as the 2024 Magdeburg Christmas market incident. German industry has shed hundreds of thousands of jobs under high energy costs and Chinese competition; infrastructure decay is widespread. The firewall strategy of isolation, intelligence designations as extremist, and talk of bans has not contained AfD support, which now leads nationally in some polls. Exit data showed AfD strongest across demographics, mobilising previous non-voters; social security, economy and peace ranked above migration for many.
Key tensions centre on government formation. CDU refuses AfD deals, forcing potential reliance on left parties including Die Linke and BSW as kingmaker for any anti-AfD majority of 44 seats. AfD courts CDU defectors to reach 42. Merz faces internal pressure and upcoming eastern elections; AfD frames the firewall as anti-democratic while its own economic programme mixes tax cuts, debt-brake retention and welfare promises without clear funding. European reactions split: concern in Paris and Warsaw, celebration from Salvini and Orbán. The result tests whether isolation remains viable or accelerates mainstream collapse.
Sources: Spiked, The European Conservative, UnHerd, Politico Europe.
Reform UK Conference Exposes Professionalisation Gaps
Reform UK’s conference in Birmingham, intended to showcase “First 100 Days” readiness for power, was overshadowed by a Channel 4 undercover sting on funding discussions involving key aides James Orr and Dan Jukes. Nigel Farage dismissed vastavusnõuded issues, saying he was not listening while campaigning. The party faced police reports from Labour and Liberal Democrats. Despite business attendance from firms including Heathrow, NatWest and Serco, reports emerged of awkward exchanges; membership remained buoyant while insiders described a “febrile” atmosphere and unprofessional patterns needing urgent fixing.
Background: After an embarrassing by-election and funding rows that stalled momentum, with polls briefly placing Reform third, the event aimed to project seriousness amid competition from Restore on the right. Danny Kruger outlined radical state reform—curtailing quangos, constitutional changes, mass deportations framed as restorative “institutional intifada” against post-1997 Blair-era bureaucracy. Rank-and-file saw establishment “hit jobs”; Farage’s family reportedly urged him to quit.
Tensions lie in Farage’s dual image as outsider versus potential prime minister, and whether the party can professionalise fast enough for government. Preparations lag behind the scale of proposed upheaval; loss of aides like Orr (with US and European ties) risks intellectual and organisational capacity. External pressure may tighten discipline, but repeated scandals test voter patience beyond the core base as Reform seeks to overtake Conservatives.
Sources: UnHerd, The European Conservative.