Analysis: Europe — 10 November 2026
Eurozone ministers weigh Knot and Hernández de Cos as sole candidates to succeed Lagarde
Eurozone finance ministers were due in Brussels on 9 November to take stock of the only two nominations to succeed Christine Lagarde as ECB president: Klaas Knot, who led De Nederlandsche Bank from 2011 to 2025, and Pablo Hernández de Cos, former Bank of Spain governor and now head of the Bank for International Settlements. Eurogroup President Kyriakos Pierrakakis said both candidacies arrived by the 6 November deadline. Lagarde announced on 29 October she would leave on 7 February 2027, nearly nine months early, saying she was no longer comfortable with the political neutrality the job requires.
The early exit lets EU leaders appoint a successor while Emmanuel Macron is still in office, before France’s April–May 2027 presidential election, in which Marine Le Pen is the polling favourite. Knot is seen as a hawk; Jefferies called Hernández de Cos slightly more dovish. Spain has never supplied an ECB president. The post is expected to be packaged with other vacancies: Isabel Schnabel leaves the Executive Board in January for the IMF, and Philip Lane’s term as chief economist ends on 31 May 2027. Appointment needs a reinforced qualified majority of eurozone states; the European Council decides. Berenberg’s Holger Schmieding expects a deal on all three posts before the 17–18 December summit.
National Rally’s Jean-Philippe Tanguy called the timing contempt for the rule of law. EPP MEP Markus Ferber said it sent the wrong signal amid high inflation and nervous bond markets. The timetable looks designed to lock in a Franco-German-compatible president before a possible RN victory. Whether a hawkish Dutch or a first Spanish president would better hold markets if inflation stays high, and whether the rush itself becomes a French campaign issue, remain open.
Sources: Brussels Signal.
Trump says Ukraine will have a ‘different shape’ as Abu Dhabi talks open
Donald Trump told CBS’s 60 Minutes that Ukraine would “end up with a little bit different shape” under a peace deal, without specifying territorial changes. He said he believed the war would end soon and did not think Vladimir Putin was deliberately stalling. Trilateral talks among Ukraine, Russia and the United States are scheduled in Abu Dhabi on 10–11 November, the first such round since February, focused on post-war security and de-escalation. Ursula von der Leyen said the EU would be present. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said France would attend and that Europe would not let anyone speak on its behalf.
The Kremlin had earlier said the format was strictly trilateral and ruled out European participation. Trump envoy Jared Kushner said Washington would consult Europeans on the sidelines and move to a broader format only if progress was made. Giorgia Meloni demanded that the EU decide who represents the bloc and with what mandate after reports that no EU presence was planned. Marco Rubio said Trump was probably referring to advances on a post-conflict security architecture. Moscow still demands Ukrainian withdrawal from four claimed regions, limits on Kyiv’s forces and an end to NATO ambitions; Ukraine rejects ceding territory and wants credible guarantees.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said no agreement concerning Europe can be made without Europe, that the best possible outcome of Abu Dhabi is a ceasefire, and that he does not believe Putin wants one. He argued there can be no grey zones between NATO, the EU and Russia. Paris and Brussels insist Europe is in the room; the US-Russian format treats it as optional; member states have not agreed who speaks. Whether “different shape” means security guarantees, as Rubio claims, or territorial concession is unanswered as talks open.
Sources: Brussels Signal, Brussels Signal, ERR News.