Analysis: Finance & Crypto — 07 November 2026
October US payrolls jump to 165,000 versus 65,000 expected
The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, far above the 65,000 consensus, while the prior two months were revised higher by a net 84,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% even as participation rose to 61.9%, and average hourly earnings increased 0.4% month on month against 0.3% expected. Money markets lifted the probability of a 25-basis-point December hike to about 77% from the mid-60s earlier on Friday. Front-end Treasury yields led a bear flattening, with the two-year up 5.1 basis points to 4.522%.
The print followed Thursday’s Nasdaq drop of about 5.5%, one of the worst sessions since the Covid shock, which had revived a growth-scare bid in bonds. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said inflation has stayed too high and that policy is not yet restrictive enough, while New York Fed President John Williams called it a time to gather more information. University of Michigan preliminary sentiment rose to 51 from 48, beating forecasts of an unchanged reading, even as survey comments flagged anxiety over an AI bubble.
The tension is that a resilient labour market gives the Federal Reserve more room to focus on inflation, yet energy costs and the AI buildout remain the main sources of excess price pressure cited by officials. Tuesday’s CPI report is now the next test of December pricing. Analysis: if wage growth stays sticky while financial conditions tighten through equities, the Fed may hike once and then pause rather than restart a long tightening cycle.
Bitcoin falls to $74,762 as crypto misses Nasdaq rebound
Bitcoin slipped to $74,762 after Friday’s US open, its weakest level since 21 August, even as the Nasdaq Composite gained as much as 1.8% in the first hour. Thursday’s tech-led rout had already pushed bitcoin below $76,000, with more than $1 billion in leveraged crypto positions liquidated over 24 hours. US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $430.2 million of net outflows on Thursday, led by Fidelity’s FBTC at $199.9 million and BlackRock’s IBIT at $105 million, reversing Wednesday’s post-election inflow.
The CoinDesk 20 index lost 6.28% over that 24-hour window, and ether underperformed bitcoin. Analysts at FalconX and GSR tied the equity selloff to fears that a Democratic Congress could slow AI data-centre spending. Bitcoin had rebounded toward $80,000 after the midterms before giving those gains back with the chip complex. Material Indicators’ Keith Alan warned that a weekly close below the 50-week moving average, near $75,500–$77,500, could open a move toward $69,000.
Fact: crypto did not participate in Friday’s short-covering bounce in semiconductors. Analysis: hotter payrolls raise the cost of liquidity just as ETF demand has flipped negative, so bitcoin is trading more as a high-beta risk asset than as a hedge. Whether $75,000 holds into the weekly close is the immediate technical question.
Oil heads for 12% weekly drop despite fresh Hormuz attacks
Brent and WTI were on course for roughly 12% weekly losses after US midterm results raised hopes of a shorter US–Iran conflict. WTI settled Friday at $90.83 a barrel and Brent at $98.32, only modestly higher on the day after a brutal midweek slide. Reuters reported at least five vessel incidents in the Persian Gulf since Sunday, which put a floor under prices but did not reverse the week’s unwind of the war premium.
JPMorgan estimated the global oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels a day in September, widening to 1.4 million in October. Goldman Sachs described September and October as roughly balanced as Gulf exports recovered. ING said that, without escalation, the market is likely to keep giving back the risk premium built in recent months, because flows through Hormuz have held up better than feared.
The contradiction is that physical risk has not disappeared while paper markets are already pricing peace. President Trump still faces a binary choice between de-escalation and another strike, and analysts note that a Democratic Congress did not stop the Iraq war after 2006. Until transit through the Gulf is cheaper and safer, dips may find buyers even as the weekly tape remains deeply negative.
Sources: ZeroHedge, CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, OilPrice.com, OilPrice.com.