Merz’s CDU collapses as AfD surges in German state votes
In state elections on 20 September, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with 38.2% of the vote, more than doubling its 2021 share, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) scored 4.9% and fell below the 5% threshold for the first time in any postwar state parliament. The Social Democrats (SPD) took 35.5% and look set to retain power in coalition with the Left and Greens. In Berlin the same day, the Left Party came first, the CDU dropped to second, and the AfD rose to third on 16%. Merz called the results a “disaster” but insisted he would stay on and that his economic reforms are the answer to “authoritarianism.”
These outcomes follow the AfD’s strong showing in Saxony-Anhalt earlier in September. Merz, who led the CDU to a federal win in 2025 and formed a grand coalition with the SPD, has seen his approval ratings collapse. He had promised to reverse nuclear phase-out, tighten migration rules and respect the debt brake, yet compromised on borrowing, courts blocked migration measures, and nuclear restart failed without AfD votes. Turnout rose and former non-voters boosted the AfD.
The firewall against the AfD held, leaving the election winner in opposition. Key tensions include whether the CDU will eventually break the cordon sanitaire or face further erosion of its right-wing base, whether Merz survives a possible mid-term leadership challenge, and how mainstream parties respond to voter mobilisation without relying on exclusion or bans. Economic stagnation, energy costs and migration remain unresolved drivers.
Sources: Spiked, UnHerd, Politico Europe.
Trump’s Greenland security deal tightens US Arctic grip
Donald Trump announced a security agreement with Denmark and Greenland granting the US “permanent control” over the territory’s security. It builds on the 1951 defence pact but adds US veto rights over adversary bases, military presence or sensitive investments by non-NATO actors, with no direct US purchase or rental costs. The deal is due for signature around the UN General Assembly and requires approval by Danish and Greenlandic parliaments. Trump framed it as addressing US concerns including missile defence and Arctic routes; critics in Europe initially portrayed it as a status-quo reaffirmation that preserved Danish sovereignty.
Background includes Trump’s earlier interest in acquiring Greenland, rising Chinese and Russian Arctic activity, potential new shipping lanes, and mineral resources. Greenland retains self-government within the Kingdom of Denmark, with independence support high but little appetite for swapping Danish for US dependence. The text enhances Greenland’s formal role as a party and contemplates continuity if it becomes independent.
Open questions centre on the precise legal limits on Danish/Greenlandic sovereignty, investment screening scope, parliamentary ratification risks, and whether the arrangement delivers genuine US strategic gains or mainly symbolic ones. European governments view it as defusing a bilateral crisis while accepting expanded American leverage in the High North amid broader NATO and energy security pressures.
Sources: Spiked, Politico Europe.