Analysis: Global — 04 November 2026
Democrats flip US House and Senate in midterm landslide
Decision desks on Tuesday projected Democratic majorities in both chambers after Senate pickups in South Carolina, Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Kansas and Maine. Democrats did not lose any Senate seats they already held, and several races were called by wide margins rather than recount-level gaps. President Donald Trump posted that he was not on the ballot and would have won in a landslide if he had been, then told the New York Times he would look forward to working with Democrats and would “probably work something out.”
The vote followed a campaign shaped by high fuel prices, an Iran war now in its ninth month, and low presidential approval. The American Conservative’s Jude Russo argued that voters rejected a hawkish “Bushism” rather than the original America First mix of restraint, trade realism and immigration control. Democratic leaders immediately framed the majorities as a vehicle for oversight, subpoenas and an effort to end what they called a costly war and tariff regime.
How large the Senate majority will be, and whether Democrats try to abolish the filibuster, remains open. Trump had vowed to become “Mr. Veto” if they won, so war-funding cuts are not automatic. His claimed deal with Benjamin Netanyahu to halt about $4 billion a year in direct military aid to Israel by year-end also collides with Congress’s appropriations power.
Sources: Asia Times, The American Conservative.
US strikes Iran’s Qeshm Island as Hormuz talks stall
The U.S. military struck Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday, day 249 of the war. Officials told NBC the action was a limited “defensive” response after Iran reportedly downed an American drone and fired at U.S. jets; Trump later said Washington had watched an anti-aircraft facility being built for two months and hit it in a “minor attack.” Iran’s deputy foreign minister said the bombings show the country is still at war. Security official Mohsen Rezaei said the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until Washington accepts “Iran’s seven conditions.”
The conflict began in late February with U.S.-Israeli operations and a de facto choke on Hormuz. Qatari and Pakistani mediators have kept indirect talks alive, with a further round set for November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Iran has floated a sequence in which U.S. steps would be followed by a Hormuz reopening within 48 hours; Washington has not accepted that formula. Trump had pledged not to strike Iran before the midterms, then did so on the eve of the vote.
Military action and peace talk now run in parallel. Trump threatened to resume a heavier bombing campaign even as he predicted the war would end “very soon.” Gulf insurers and oil traders must price both a ceasefire and a renewed bombardment. Whether a Democratic Congress can actually halt operations is untested.
Sources: The American Conservative, Antiwar.com, Wall Street Journal, NBC News.
Brent rebounds near $104 as Hormuz oil stays below pre-war flows
Brent, which plunged more than $6 on Tuesday to about $100.80 on diplomacy headlines, recovered toward $104; WTI traded near $96. Traders rotated from midterm news back to Middle East supply risk. Rystad Energy said Gulf crude flows are unlikely to return to pre-war levels soon even if Washington and Tehran reach a limited deal. Vortexa data showed October Hormuz exports of crude, condensates and fuels at 17.1 million barrels a day, down from 18.9 million in September.
The physical market remains tight. U.S. crude stocks posted another large weekly draw, OPEC+ left its December output target unchanged, and AAA put U.S. regular gasoline at $4.15 a gallon and diesel at $6.29. ADNOC Gas signed a five-year deal to supply TotalEnergies with up to 1.6 million tonnes of LNG, even as Hormuz routing for LNG stays constrained. ING said a large war premium is still embedded in prices.
Paper-market hope and tanker-level shortage are pulling in opposite directions. A peace headline can erase $6 in a morning; a Qeshm strike or tanker incident can restore it. Analysts still estimate a war premium near $18, and Trump’s mix of strikes and talk of peace leaves little directional conviction.
Sources: OilPrice.com, Rystad Energy, Vortexa, Reuters, ADNOC Gas.