Analysis: Finance & Crypto — 03 November 2026
Bitcoin falls below $77,000 as fifth weekly loss looms ahead of US midterms
Bitcoin fell about 2% to just under $77,000 in Tuesday Asian hours, erasing Monday’s rebound, then traded near $76,900 after a dip to about $76,300. A fifth consecutive weekly decline would mark its joint third-longest losing streak on record. The drop stands out because it landed on US midterm election day, with semiconductor stocks already in a sharp selloff.
From weeks 40 to 44, bitcoin has fallen from around $87,000 to roughly $76,500. US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $399 million of net outflows on Monday, a second straight day, and BlackRock’s IBIT saw $405 million leave—its largest daily outflow since June. Binance customers have withdrawn a net $4.72 billion since withdrawals reopened on Sunday. CryptoQuant’s one-to-three-month buyer cost basis sits at $77,700, now above the spot price, while short-term holders’ cost basis is about $75,832.
Traders had pointed to roughly $2.2 billion of CME bitcoin shorts as possible squeeze fuel, but the recent Binance hack has muddied positioning as coins moved into cold storage. In practice, bitcoin is tracking Nasdaq risk-off rather than oil geopolitics: Monday’s crude collapse did not lift BTC. Strategy still bought 811 bitcoin last week at an average $80,846, even as it spent $208 million buying back STRC preferred shares. The open question is whether the $76,000–$76,600 band, which has reversed price four times since September, holds through the vote.
Sources: CoinDesk, CoinTelegraph, Bitcoin Magazine.
Oil plunges 7% on Iran diplomacy then rebounds after Qeshm Island strikes
Crude fell nearly 7% on Monday after Washington and Tehran both signaled room for talks, cutting part of the war premium built through October. Brent dropped $7.85 to $105.60 a barrel and WTI $7.20 to $96.92, with later settlements near $104.77 and $96.46. Prices then bounced about 2%, with WTI near $98 and Brent back above $106, after reports of limited US airstrikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the Supreme Leader had granted the government authority over dialogue. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a Qatar-mediated proposal could reopen Hormuz in as little as two days if Washington meets conditions, including an end to the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and oil sanctions. Goldman Sachs puts a geopolitical risk premium near $27 a barrel and raised its December Brent forecast to $105 from $90, with a 2027 average of $88, up from $80.
Officials described the Qeshm action as a response to IRGC fire on a US aircraft; Iran’s IRNA reported explosions on the island. President Trump has said the conflict should “end very soon” while declining to rule out further strikes after the vote. Markets are therefore pricing a peace path and a war path on consecutive sessions. OPEC+ kept December production targets unchanged, and banks argue the premium fades quickly only if a deal looks durable.
Sources: OilPrice.com, ZeroHedge, CoinDesk.
Chip rout and Apple margin warning push Nasdaq 100 into a 10% drawdown
A gauge of US chipmakers extended a three-day decline to 12%, and the Nasdaq 100 is down 10% from its peak, pulling Asian equities and crypto lower hours before Americans vote. Apple beat fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and revenue, but warned that an “unprecedented” rise in memory-chip prices and the cost of serving AI tools would squeeze margins. Its shares were about 5% lower in premarket trading.
The semiconductor slide followed a weak Friday in tech and sits on a busy Tuesday calendar: the RBA decision, US September JOLTS, factory orders, and AMD results after the close. Prediction markets have assigned Democrats a high probability of winning the House, adding a policy overlay for risk assets, including pending crypto market-structure legislation.
The contradiction is that lower oil, which would normally ease inflation and rate fears, has not offset the AI-capex and chip-cost shock. Bitcoin is behaving as a high-beta tech proxy, not as a geopolitical hedge. Whether Apple’s warning extends the chip unwind, and whether a midterm result that stalls digital-asset bills adds a second-order policy hit, remains unresolved as polls close.
Sources: CoinDesk, ZeroHedge, Bitcoin Magazine.