Analysis: Finance & Crypto — 29 October 2026
Fed holds rates at 3.75–4% in 10-2 vote as bitcoin slips to $80,000
The Federal Reserve left the federal funds target at 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday in a 10-2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented for a 25-basis-point increase, the first time since 1992 a governor and a regional president have dissented together on the same side. Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal December, dropped earlier language on when a hike might restore 2% inflation, and called growth “strong.” Bitcoin spiked near $81,700, then fell; by Thursday it traded around $80,100 after a dip to about $79,600.
Markets had priced a hold after September’s projections pointed to one more increase this year, most likely in December. Inflation remains above the 2% target; the 10-year yield rose about four basis points to 5.025% after the decision. Bitcoin is still about a third below its October 2025 high near $126,000. Spot bitcoin ETFs took in $137 million on Wednesday, a third straight inflow day, even as about $356 million of leveraged longs were liquidated when price broke $80,000.
The hold was expected; the hawkish packaging was not fully absorbed. Warsh said he does not favor forward guidance absent a crisis, so December now hangs on incoming data, including PCE. Samsung shares fell 4–5% despite record chip profit, and Alphabet missed estimates, pulling Nasdaq-100 futures down about 1.1% and hitting ether and AI-linked tokens. The open question is whether $80,000 holds into the November 3 midterms and a possible December hike.
European TTF gas hits four-year high near €100/MWh as EU ministers meet
European TTF natural gas traded around €97/MWh and touched €100/MWh on Wednesday, the highest since December 2022 and about ten times the U.S. price. EU energy ministers met Thursday as the heating season starts. Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen called the situation “very serious” and warned against neglecting security of supply even if physical shortages are not yet visible.
QatarEnergy extended LNG force majeure to Italy’s Edison through end-December, the fifth extension this year, with Qatari tanker flows still near a third of pre-war levels. EU storage is near 75%, versus more than 80% in recent years. European gas demand is already about 16% below 2021, so further spikes may hit activity more than consumption. Injection season is over.
Officials still lean on a mild winter; some models now flag colder late November and early December. Russian pipeline contracts are due to phase out by late 2027, and Commission President von der Leyen rejected buying more Russian gas as part of a Ukraine deal. Germany’s extra 8 TWh storage mandate is small relative to the gap. The tension is between messaging that storage is adequate given lower demand and a thinner buffer plus disrupted LNG.
Oil eases as Vance writes Iran’s Rezaei; Brent still above $114
Brent fell to about $114 and WTI to about $101 after the Wall Street Journal reported Vice President JD Vance wrote to Iran’s SNSC secretary Mohsen Rezaei to restart talks. President Trump had threatened renewed action after the November 3 midterms while saying he was not negotiating; the Journal said he approved the letter. Qatar presented a new draft; Tehran says its conditions must be met.
U.S. crude inventories fell 1.9 million barrels in the week to October 23, to 410.6 million, 4% below the five-year average. Distillate stocks are 10% below average. Hormuz attacks and Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure have kept a war premium in the market. UBS has raised its year-end Brent forecast to $110.
Traders are pricing diplomacy even as Houthis hit Aden airport and Saudi energy sites. Trump’s public line and Vance’s outreach conflict on the surface. Physical tightness in diesel and Gulf LNG is separate from any ceasefire talk. Whether a deal reopens Hormuz before the midterms remains unresolved.
Sources: CoinDesk, Bitcoin Magazine, ZeroHedge, OilPrice.com.