Analysis: Europe — 19 October 2026
Trump waives Graham Act sanctions as US throttles Ukraine Starlink
Late Friday, Donald Trump signed an executive order waiving the Graham Act sanctions on Russia, a law he had signed only last month. In the same week Ukrainian media reported sudden limits on Starshield, the military layer of Elon Musk’s Starlink: drones lost signal above 160 km/h. Reuters said the White House ordered the throttling after Ukraine kept hitting Russian refineries. On the night of 12 October, Russia launched ballistic missiles; Ukraine reportedly received no US launch warning. Wolfgang Münchau writes in UnHerd that these steps, plus a US purchase of 4.8 million tons of Russian diesel, show Washington is no longer actively defending Kyiv.
After the 2025 Alaska meeting, neither Vladimir Putin nor Volodymyr Zelensky would yield on the Donbas. Trump then turned to Iran; oil and gas have now pulled Ukraine back onto the US agenda, but on commercial terms. The EU last year agreed a €90bn loan after Belgium blocked seizure of frozen Russian assets. Kyiv now wants another €70bn. Zelensky attended last week’s European Council. Politico reports leaders made no progress on a €2 trillion EU budget and remain split on using immobilised Russian funds at Euroclear.
Fact and interpretation diverge. Europeans pledge to fill the gap, yet Germany resists a larger EU budget, extra German aid does not appear in Berlin’s own books, and Marine Le Pen has said she would cut French support if elected. Münchau’s analysis is that Europe cannot match US satellite quality for fast drones and that a “dirty peace” is likelier than European substitution. Jennifer Kavanagh, also in UnHerd, treats the waiver as Trump putting US fuel prices and the midterms first, not as a coherent pro-Moscow turn. Whether intelligence sharing was cut or merely failed, and whether Nord Stream talks are more than rumour, remain open.
Sources: UnHerd, Politico Europe.
France arrests 2,400 after cost-of-living protests turn to arson
Around 2,400 people were arrested and nearly 1,000 police injured after Saturday’s protests over fuel, wages and public services turned to looting and arson. The interior ministry counted more than 550,000 marchers; the CGT put turnout near 800,000. Rioters burned Limoges town hall, whose clock tower collapsed, set fire to Lyon’s tourist office and looted shops in Paris, Marseille and Lille. Paris recorded more than 850 arrests. Carrefour said 50 stores were damaged. Emmanuel Macron condemned the violence, refused a state of emergency and allowed prefects to ban protests. InvestingLive noted the euro opened weaker; French bonds remain sensitive to any extra spending.
Unrest began with teacher protests at Lycée Saint-Exupéry in Créteil over dilapidated schools and late pay. Anne-Elisabeth Moutet in UnHerd traces a longer arc from the 2018 Gilets Jaunes through Macron’s 2022 re-election. France’s debt-to-GDP reached 119% in the second quarter of 2026; it now borrows at higher rates than Italy. On Friday, with unrest expected, the Macrons were filmed dancing at a Céline Dion concert in Nanterre.
Le Pen spoke first, at 6pm, from a desk with a French flag, citing a “profound crisis of trust and authority.” Macron, two hours later, promised an online platform for student and teacher grievances. He spoke of “unrestrained violence”; she named Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Unbowed as having told crowds violence “could be legitimate.” Markets see street demand for spending colliding with a deficit that leaves little room to buy calm. Macron cannot run again in 2027; Le Pen is the poll front-runner. Whether yellow-vest-style follow-on protests take hold is the next test.
Sources: InvestingLive, UnHerd, Politico Europe.