Analysis: Finance & Crypto — 06 October 2026
Bitcoin rejected at $87,000 for a third time as spot ETFs lose $90 million
Bitcoin fell about 1.2% to roughly $85,600 in Tuesday Asian trade after sellers turned it back from just above $87,000, the third rejection of that level since Sept. 23. The Nasdaq closed at a record, while total crypto market value slipped to about $2.93 trillion. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $89.9 million on Monday, reversing about $293 million of inflows over the prior two sessions. Ether ETFs shed about $51 million, a fifth straight outflow day.
The session fell on the first anniversary of the $126,080 peak, and Bitcoin is about 32% below it. CoinDesk’s cycle comparison shows one-year drawdowns of roughly 70% to 82% after the 2013, 2017 and 2021 tops. The June low, just under $59,000, was a little more than 53% off the peak, against earlier bear-market losses of 77% to 85%. Cumulative spot ETF inflows are still down 5.8%, to about $57.7 billion.
Payrolls of 29,000, versus forecasts near 80,000 to 90,000, cut October hike odds to roughly 20% from about 70% to 75% a week earlier. That repricing did not clear $87,000. Rising local lows sit under flat resistance, and a break under $84,000 would open room toward $80,000. Whether the milder drawdown is a floor or a pause still depends on yields and ETF flows, not on the anniversary.
Sources: CoinDesk, Cointelegraph.
Ten-year yield rises to 5.31% even as October hike odds fall
Treasuries bear-steepened on Monday. The 10-year yield rose 3.2 basis points to 5.307% and the 30-year rose 3.8 basis points to 5.661%, while the two-year was almost unchanged at 4.831%. CME FedWatch priced about 6 basis points for October, near a one-in-four chance of another quarter-point hike. The dollar index held around 102.5, an 18-month high.
September’s 25-basis-point increase, to 3.75%–4.00%, was the first hike since 2023. New York Fed President John Williams has said there is no urgency to follow it. Late last month the opposite trade dominated, with October hike odds above 70% and the 10-year through 5% while oil stayed high. Monday’s front end reflected the jobs data; the long end did not.
Stocks rallied through that split, and Bitcoin gave back part of Friday’s bounce. A pause is priced at the short end while term premium is still rising further out. Minutes from the September meeting and this week’s note and bond auctions are the next check on which signal holds.
Sources: ZeroHedge, CoinDesk, Cointelegraph.
Gulf crude exports recover to 81% of pre-war levels as stocks stay thin
September exports of crude, condensates and LPG from the Persian Gulf reached 81% of pre-war levels, excluding Iranian oil, which Kpler and Vortexa count as zero. Saudi shipments rose from 4.2 million barrels a day in August to about 6.6 million in September. Vortexa’s Gulf total was 19.2 million barrels a day versus 23.6 million before the war, with crude nearer 91% of the old pace and fuel exports only about 60%.
Amin Nasser said nearly 3 billion barrels of gross supply have been lost since the Iran war began and more than 1 billion barrels have been drawn from inventories. Commercial stocks are under 6 billion barrels, most not usable in practice, and he said refilling them while meeting demand could take two years even after Hormuz fully reopens. He added that Brent could have reached $200 without the East-West pipeline, now near 80% of capacity after last month’s attack.
WTI settled Monday at $89.43 and Brent at $100.32, down $1.68 and $1.93, after a G7 pledge of up to 100 million barrels of crude and diesel over four months cut the gasoil crack from about $85 to about $70. OPEC+ left the November quota for eight members at 31.01 million barrels a day, well above August output near 25 million. Daily flows are more volatile than before the war, so the export rebound and the thin-stock warning can both be true.
Sources: OilPrice.com, ZeroHedge.