Bitcoin Slips Under $79,000 as Fed Hike Odds Hold Near 60%
Bitcoin traded just below $78,800 on Tuesday, down more than 1% on the day while clinging to a modest weekly gain, as major tokens broadly declined. Stronger-than-expected August U.S. payrolls of 162,000 versus forecasts near 53,000-55,000 pushed the market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 meeting to roughly 60%. The 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.8%, with yen strength and rising global yields adding pressure on risk assets ahead of Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI.
Background includes Bitcoin’s failure to sustain closes above $80,000 after an August rally, with the token spending a fortnight in a range. Higher policy rates raise the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets and tighten financial conditions. Zcash led losses with a nearly 5% drop after strong weekly gains, while Ether, Solana and others also retreated. Long-term holders had flipped to net buyers in late August, and some strategists noted crypto absorbing headwinds without major technical damage.
Key tensions center on inflation data that could lift hike odds toward two-thirds and test $77,000 support, versus residual institutional demand and options positioning that has seen fear drain. President Trump’s public calls for lower rates add political uncertainty for Fed Chair Warsh between a strong labor market and White House pressure. Markets remain highly sensitive to the final pre-FOMC prints.
Sources: CoinDesk, ZeroHedge.
Oil Rises on U.S.-Iran Tanker Strikes, Adding Inflation Headwinds
U.S. Central Command confirmed weekend strikes on three Iranian oil tankers—M/T Downy, Stark 1 and Kylo—near Kharg Island, Jask and the Gulf of Oman, in response to Iranian attacks on U.S. vessels. Brent climbed above $97, a six-week high, while WTI traded near $92-93, extending September gains beyond 6% from July lows around $70. Centcom reported redirecting 92 merchant ships, disabling three and boarding two since mid-July under the naval blockade.
The escalation continues a months-long maritime confrontation that has constrained Iranian exports and Hormuz traffic. Higher crude feeds global inflation pressures, complicating central bank paths including the Fed’s, and is viewed as a headwind for liquidity-sensitive markets. Futures dropped modestly in holiday-thinned trading as yields rose in Europe and Asia; energy equities outperformed.
Uncertainties include reports of potential Iran-Oman deals on Hormuz shipping management, possible further infrastructure hits, and whether elevated oil sustains or reverses with any de-escalation. The combination of energy prices and strong jobs data keeps the inflation impulse alive into this week’s U.S. data, raising the bar for any Fed hold.
Sources: CoinDesk, ZeroHedge, OilPrice.com.
Liquid Network Recovers Most of 4,000 BTC After White-Hat Exploit
Unidentified actors claiming white-hat status returned 3,400 of the roughly 4,000 BTC (about $320 million) drained Sunday from Liquid Network’s federation wallet that backs L-BTC. About 598 BTC, worth roughly $47 million, remains outstanding as Blockstream continues talks. The sidechain, used by exchanges for faster settlement, was paused, bridge nodes disabled, and L-BTC deposits/withdrawals frozen after the near-total reserve drain left it under-backed.
The exploit involved a peg-out authorization vulnerability at a federation member. Attackers negotiated publicly via Bitcoin transaction messages (OP_RETURN), returning funds after patches were confirmed. Operators are fixing security, resolving a chain split from the pause, and ensuring full backing before restart. Other Liquid assets such as Tether were unaffected.
Tensions involve restoring confidence in the 1:1 peg and federation model versus the remaining withheld funds and any residual risks. No user action is required pending official restart confirmation; the episode highlights operational security challenges even on Bitcoin-adjacent infrastructure used by major platforms.
Sources: CoinDesk, The Defiant, Bitcoin Magazine.