AfD Surges Ahead of Saxony-Anhalt Vote
Polls place the Alternative for Germany (AfD) at around 40-42% ahead of Sunday’s state election in Saxony-Anhalt, roughly double the CDU’s share and potentially enough for the largest bloc or even a governing majority depending on the 5% threshold. This would mark the first time the party leads a German state government. Establishment parties have passed “emergency rules” altering how the minister-president is elected and raising judicial appointment thresholds, while federal Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has called for bans in eastern states. Public broadcasters ARD and ZDF have given AfD politicians just 4.7% of talk-show invitations this year despite national polling near 28%.
Saxony-Anhalt, an eastern state of about two million, has seen AfD support rise from 20.8% in 2021 amid dissatisfaction with migration, economic stagnation and the federal CDU-SPD coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The party’s local lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund campaigns on deportations, cultural policy and ending what it calls elite isolation. CDU state premier Sven Schulze’s coalition faces internal revolt over any post-election deals with Die Linke to exclude AfD. Nationally, AfD now leads some polls over the CDU/CSU.
Key tensions centre on whether firewall tactics—constitutional tweaks, media under-representation and ban threats—preserve or erode democratic legitimacy. If AfD wins without a majority, forced leftward coalitions could accelerate voter shifts. Open questions remain on how Berlin and Brussels respond to an AfD-led state, and whether isolation has strengthened rather than contained the party.
Sources: Spiked, The European Conservative.
Ceuta Crisis Escalates into Sovereignty Dispute
US President Donald Trump described Spain’s Ceuta migrant influx as “worse than an invasion” and warned the country “will be a ruined country,” linking it to NATO under-spending, in a 3 September interview. Simultaneously, a Moroccan minister reasserted claims over the Spanish North African enclave, stating Rabat “will not retreat a single inch.” Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez rejected the claims as unacceptable while denying solid evidence of Moroccan orchestration, despite leaked police reports citing agents directing crossings. An estimated 60,000 entered in late July, with dozens dead; most returned but hundreds remain.
The mass crossing overwhelmed the enclave, prompting troop deployments, camp clearances and Spanish legal reforms on border returns. Opposition VOX and some MEPs frame it as hybrid pressure; Washington has criticised Madrid’s policies. Sánchez faces dual pressure: containing Rabat while managing domestic fallout and EU external-border credibility. Trump’s comments add a transatlantic dimension.
Tensions lie in conflicting narratives—spontaneous surge versus directed action—and the gap between sovereignty rhetoric and operational control. Contradictions include EU funding proposals for Morocco amid member-state demands for verified returns, and Sánchez’s insistence on partnership despite territorial friction. Open questions include long-term border militarisation, impact on Spain-Morocco ties, and whether the episode accelerates EU-wide external-border hardening.
Sources: The European Conservative, Spiked.