AfD leads Saxony-Anhalt as elites fortify firewall
Polls ahead of Sunday’s Saxony-Anhalt state election put the Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 41-43%, roughly double the CDU’s 22-23%. This opens the possibility of the first AfD-led state government in postwar Germany, or at least a result that leaves no stable anti-AfD majority. The party’s lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund campaigns on overturning the status quo. Other parties maintain a strict firewall against cooperation.
Background includes years of eastern discontent, high energy costs, and migration pressures that have eroded support for the governing CDU-SPD-FDP coalition under Premier Sven Schulze. The state parliament earlier passed “emergency rules” raising thresholds for key appointments and altering minister-president election procedures—measures backed by all parties except the AfD. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has floated banning the AfD in eastern states. Within the CDU, a district-level revolt rejects any reliance on Die Linke for a minority government, even as Chancellor Friedrich Merz cites Saxony and Thuringia models of informal left support.
Key tensions centre on whether excluding the largest party constitutes democratic defence or elite self-preservation. AfD critics highlight its Russia leanings and undefined “remigration” talk; supporters note the establishment’s constitutional manoeuvres and demonisation (Der Spiegel’s “most dangerous man” cover) have failed to shrink its vote. Open questions remain: can the CDU form any viable government without Die Linke or AfD? Will a strong AfD showing accelerate pressure on Merz nationally ahead of further September votes? The result tests how far German institutions will go to contain populist majorities.
Sources: Spiked, The European Conservative, Reuters.
Europe faces renewed energy squeeze into autumn
European gas (TTF) trades at €66-68/MWh—the highest August level since the early Ukraine war peaks outside 2022 extremes—while Brent hovers near $90. Storage sits under 63%, far below the five-year average near 80% and last year’s levels. The euro has weakened toward multi-month lows as energy costs weigh on the trade balance; the EU recorded a €21.8 billion deficit in Q2, driven by a deteriorated energy account. Goldman Sachs sees TTF potentially above €100/MWh by year-end on LNG needs.
Background traces to post-2022 loss of Russian pipeline gas, compounded by Middle East disruptions (Hormuz-related costs hit the EU hardest at an estimated $78 billion extra) and summer heatwaves that spiked electricity demand. Industrial power prices remain 2-3 times US levels and gas 4-5 times higher, as flagged in the Draghi report. Eurostat and Commission analyses had warned of autumn price and growth impacts if Middle East tensions persisted.
Analysis highlights structural vulnerability: LNG diversification reshuffled rather than removed dependencies, with one-fifth of global LNG still Hormuz-exposed and Asian competition intense. ECB signals possible further rate hikes amid rising energy inflation (to 10%). Member states float windfall taxes on oil majors posting strong profits. The core contradiction is long-term “strategic autonomy” rhetoric versus short-term rigidities that leave households and industry exposed. Open questions include storage refill success, fiscal subsidy burdens on budgets, and whether pragmatic supply adjustments override dogmatic targets before winter.
Sources: The European Conservative, InvestingLive.